LTE looks like a real platform at last, with the US carriers driving the market

(Feb 22 2011) LTE , WiMAX

1. By Caroline Gabriel, research director, Rethink Technology Research

   It was inevitable that LTE would be a major focus of MWC, now that several major operators have deployed commercial services. While the first of these, TeliaSonera, was the star of MWC 2010, this year the event was dominated, on the 4G front, by the US - a sign of the times in itself, compared to previous years when North American carriers were hardly present, and certainly not leading the field in new networks. 

   This time, Verizon Wireless was touting its LTE network and devices, and setting out its ambitious agenda, completely overshadowing the more cautious approaches of most European operators, still focused on stretching the capabilities of HSPA+ as far as possible. Verizon is only matched in the speed of innovation by the start-up US 4G operators, Clearwire and LightSquared, and by some of the usual Asian frontrunners such as DoCoMo and SKT. These are not just seeking to speed up their access networks and support new applications but to support entirely new approaches, including a heavy focus on the cloud. 

   But this was a US-focused event for once, in the key issue of 4G roll-outs. Vendors were, as always, luring operators and headline writers by looking beyond the horizon to LTE-Advanced, but those interested in real world 4G were flocking to Verizon. There was also intense interest in its CDMA rival Sprint, which said it was likely to make a decision on its own 4G strategy within a few months. This is important beyond the carrier's own business because it will influence the global debate over whether WiMAX or TD-LTE will thrive best in TDD spectrum. Sprint's 4G joint venture, Clearwire, currently uses WiMAX in its 2.5GHz TDD bands, but is testing TD-LTE too, while Sprint may include FD-LTE in its huge network modernization program, as an upgrade for CDMA. There is also speculation that it will seek to integrate more closely with Clearwire, or even take over the firm entirely.

   At Sprint's quarterly results announcement, CEO Dan Hesse said the company could announce its future 4G strategy before the middle of the year, which provoked much debate in Barcelona. Although he was clear that no decision had been made to change the current approach, which rides on the Clearwire venture and its WiMAX network, Sprint's network modernization plan does include the ability to deploy LTE.

   Sprint gained a headstart by launching 4G as an MVNO of Clearwire, but now sees Verizon Wireless catching up fast with its LTE launch. Hesse said the initial commercial roll-outs of the flexible base stations that underpin the Network Vision program would take place around August, in its eight largest metro areas. According to FierceWireless, he said that Clearwire could use Sprint's modernized network, if LTE were enabled in future, which could result in significant cost savings for both companies. 

   However, there are still plenty of markets for WiMAX, including smart grid and machine-to-machine deployments and the huge global demand for universal access. And many non-traditional operators do support mobile services, even if they are not established cellcos, whose natural bent is towards LTE. According to the WiMAX Forum, half of all global WiMAX subscribers are now mobile.

   Forum marketing director Declan Byrne said that the majority of the world's 582 WiMAX deployments are offering primarily fixed services but many of the largest are mainly mobile, and this side is growing more quickly. "It really is 20% of the operators that are doing 80% of the business," he said, and he said that the platform also gives primarily fixed carriers, like BSNL in India and Axtel in Mexico, the potential to support mobile services too in future. He commented, with the benefit of hindsight (and miles away from the aggressive statements of the Intel driven WiMAX heyday): "We knew we weren't going to take over the world." 

   But WiMAX remains a force to be reckoned with, and even Ericsson has had to make concessions to it, as long as it remains part of Sprint's strategy. The Swedish firm said it would be licensing WiMAX, a technology it has aggressively opposed, for that carrier's network modernization deal. The Swedish giant shared the huge contract with Alcatel-Lucent and Samsung, and the three will work on a multi-standard network that can migrate iDEN to CDMA, and potentially integrate with Clearwire's WiMAX network, and add LTE in future. Samsung is a rare presence in major 3G infrastructure projects outside Korea, but is keen to use its leadership in WiMAX to make progress in the similar LTE platform. In the Sprint plan, it will license its WiMAX technology to Ericsson and ALU.

   The European vendors are to load Samsung's WiMAX radio technology into their software defined base stations to support current and future versions of the standard. WiMAX is used by Sprint's joint venture Clearwire and is the basis of the cellco's 'Sprint 4G' offering, though the firm has said it will announce, within a few months, whether it will stick with WiMAX long term and/or add LTE. Clearwire itself has been testing TD-LTE with Huawei. 

   According to ConnectedPlanet, Tom Jasny, VP of wireless broadband networks for Samsung, explained: "Some elements of the network will be identical. Some elements will be unique to the supplier, but they won't be unique to the standards." 

   Scott Willis, the Ericsson VP in charge of the Sprint contract, was swift to say that the Samsung deal was a one-off  "specifically to support this deal," and not a broader strategic alliance with Samsung - nor a wider commitment to WiMAX. Ericsson never developed a WiMAX product, except for licensing a third party offering in the fixed microwave market, while Alcatel-Lucent retained the platform for fixed access only and has not worked on the upcoming WiMAX2. If Sprint decides to bring WiMAX into its own multimode network as well as Clearwire's, Samsung's role in the Network Vision modernization program could be much enhanced - but the opposite would be true if it goes for LTE instead.

   Meanwhile, the TDD flavor of LTE was on the agenda too, as more carriers trial it for TDD bands round the world, led by China Mobile and India's Reliance Infotel. ZTE said it had already secured 18 TD-LTE trials in 12 countries across Europe, the CIS region and Asia-Pacific, including India. 

   The second Chinese vendor said it was also building its TD-LTE ecosystem and working on interoperability tests with various chipset firms including Sequans, which powered devices for China Mobile's showcase network at Shanghai World Expo, as well as Qualcomm, Innofidei, Altair and ST-Ericsson.

   Also targeting TD-LTE, especially in India, is a partnership between Alcatel-Lucent and Altair. The two announced that they had complete interoperability testing and would work together on solutions for the Indian market, where ALU is particularly keen to shine in 4G, since it did not make major wins in the recent 3G awards. "TD-LTE, specifically in emerging markets, represents the highest growth potential for LTE in the coming years, and is a strategic focus area for Altair," said the device chip firm's co-founder Eran Eshed.

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