National Broadband Policy – Is the Crunch Really On?

(May 6 2012) 4G , LTE , Mobile Broadband , Small Cells , Spectrum

1. If you subscribe to the data and timing presented in the National Broadband Policy (NBP) - Connecting America, the US will likely begin to witness the effects of a spectrum crunch as early as next year.  The US wireless carriers continue to argue that ever increasing smartphone traffic is threatening to overwhelm their networks, and are asking the government for help. But if or when it will actually happen is the subject of much speculation and some experts maintain that technology already has the answers. 

   “Arguing that the nation could run out of spectrum is like saying it was going to run out of a color,” quipped Dr. David Reed, now Senior Vice President, Chief Scientist Group, SAP Labs.  As far back as a decade ago, Reed, who was at that time a professor at MIT, has challenged notions of spectrum scarcity, asserting that regulatory allocation of spectrum “is a legal metaphor that does not correspond to physical reality.” 

   Reed’s argument is deeply rooted in RF engineering and physics but can be quite simply stated as, “the capacity of a certain bandwidth in a certain physical space increases with the number of transceivers in a given space.”  In other words, the more radios you have the more capacity you have.  On the surface it may not seem Reed’s assertions are well grounded, especially if you see it through a model based on assigned allocation of spectrum.

   Key to Reed’s vision of an exponentially scalable network of transceivers are software defined radios and a swath of spectrum in which they can operate.  Does this sound vaguely familiar?  Self-organizing Networks?  Small Cells?

   To some, the vision that Reed described ten years ago might have seemed utopian or even chaotic.  Today that vision is beginning to look similar to the HetNet architectural approach to 4G networks that includes a gamut of access and backhaul elements including small cells and Wi-Fi.  But how far that vision will take us in these days of explosive growth of smartphones, tablets, mobile video and myriad 4G applications remains a burning question.

   “With the recent announcement of Verizon, the industry is under impression of we are under a full glut of spectrum and bandwidth,” said Dr. Hossein Eslambolchi, Chairman and CEO of 2020 Venture Partners, who disagrees with the assessment. “Unlike the early part of last decade, there is absolutely, and with certainty I can say, no glut of spectrum and bandwidth. This issue is not resolved, either through technology innovation or additional spectrum,” he added. “Knowing the growth of wireless broadband with LTE and LTE-A, we will end up with problems of biblical proportions impacting Quality of Service for every consumer and enterprise customers across the planet.”  In his visionary keynote at 4G World, Dr. Eslambolchi will argue that current spectrum and bandwidth constraints will not be resolved either through technology innovation or additional spectrum.

   So, in 2013 should we expect that the quality of experience for streaming YouTube videos on mobile devices will begin to deteriorate?  And without new spectrum will dropped voice calls, from the early days of 1G networks, become the norm again?

   There’s been much debate as to whether the FCC has actually advanced on its commitment to “unleashing spectrum” and just how much, if any of the proposed 500 MHz it proposed be made by 2020 has been delivered.  As examples, has the allocation of ‘D Block’ to Public Safety or the lack of engagement by US broadcasters actually resulted in there being less available spectrum today than when the NBP was conceived?

   By 2015 the NBP projected freeing 300 MHz of spectrum.   With no known immediate plans for another spectrum auction, it’s not clear that US mobile and broadband operators will be seeing new spectrum anytime soon.   In the absence of some type of reforms or a real call to action it would seem that the NBP has and will continue to fall far short of it at least some of its stated objectives for Americans.

   The NBP’s objective of providing “global leadership in mobile broadband” seems to have found its way onto the shoulders of mobile operators.  By employing more innovative, advanced radio technologies such as Wi-Fi offload, small cells, smart antennae, MIMO, VoLTE and HD Voice, mobile operators are optimizing and extending the capacity of the scarce allocations they have secured to date.  It’s a capital-intensive pursuit for operators and it drives necessary innovation in the ecosystem but whether it will continue to be enough remains to be seen.

   At some point demand is going to exceed supply, and that’s something that Reed’s vision doesn’t entirely account for; a need for some spectrum in which to operate a network and for monetary investment and incentive to change.  For now it is becoming apparent that the government, the regulator and the mobile industry need to review and perhaps redirect efforts to deliver on the promise of “Connecting America”.

   At 4G World 2012, the mobile broadband community, including industry associations, analysts, regulators and stakeholders will join in an open forum to discuss the issues surrounding access to and use of spectrum.  Delegates will hear from those who are shaping strategies and delivering on the challenges of delivering not only a ‘Connected America’ but also of the goals of IMT-Advanced.

   By:  Andy Mitchell, Editor, 4G Trends

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